Idman.biz
According to bookmakers, the probability of our national team winning in the Azerbaijan-France match to be held in Baku as part of the 2026 World Championship qualifying round has increased fivefold.
According to Idman.Biz, before the match held in France in October, which resulted in our team's defeat with a score of 0:3, bookmakers did not believe in Azerbaijan's sensational victory: in some companies, the odds for the victory of Aykhan Abbasov's team rose to 100.
This meant that Azerbaijan's chance of success was estimated at one percent - purely as a theoretical possibility, and the market almost did not take it seriously.
The attitude towards the return match in Baku has changed slightly. Currently, leading bookmakers give odds of approximately 23–27 for Azerbaijan's victory, and 1.08–1.12 for France's victory.
If we convert these indicators into probability, the chances of the home team have increased from approximately one percent to 3–4 percent. According to a number of analytical approaches, this increase corresponds to even a fivefold improvement compared to the first game in Paris.
The decrease in the odds given for Azerbaijan's victory over France shows that there are still no doubts about the favorite. However, the possible success of the outsider is no longer regarded as a completely fantastic scenario.
It is noteworthy that Kilian Mbappe's injury and the expected rotation of the French squad have not significantly affected the overall picture. Even though France has already secured a place in the World Cup and may not come to Baku with the optimal squad, bookmakers continue to confidently include the guests' victory in the line as before.
Even though the news that the star striker will not play has been announced, their winning odds have remained almost unchanged. This shows that the market still sees a big difference in level and squad depth between the teams, and is simply treating the chances of the Azerbaijani national team with a little more respect compared to October.
Teymur Tushiyev
