Bookmakers and MMA Community Doubt Tofiq Musayev's Victory

Ahead of the Tofiq Musayev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes fight, which will take place on March 28 as part of the "UFC Fight Night" tournament in Seattle, bookmaker predictions and MMA community assessments are leaning in favor of the Chilean representative.

Idman.Biz reports that, according to the average indicators of bookmakers, Bahamondes is considered the favorite with odds of approximately -215. Musayev's victory is given odds of approximately +185.

When these indicators are converted into conditional probabilities, the market estimates the Chilean fighter's chance at approximately 68 percent, and the Azerbaijani athlete's chances at approximately 35 percent. Although the difference was slightly smaller when the line opened, the odds have changed in favor of Bahamondes by approximately 2-3 percent in recent days.

A similar picture is observed in the forecasts of users of the MMA prediction platform Tapology.com. There, approximately 92 percent of the predictions are given to Bahamondes, and only 8 percent to Musayev. This balance is mainly explained by the Chilean fighter having more experience in the UFC. For Musayev, this will be only his second fight in the promotion.

Another factor noted is Bahamondes' advantage in physical indicators. The Chilean fighter is approximately 191 centimeters tall, while Musayev is approximately 175 centimeters tall. The arm span also differs significantly: approximately 192 centimeters for Bahamondes, and approximately 175 centimeters for the Azerbaijani athlete.

However, analysts emphasize that Musayev remains a very dangerous opponent. The Azerbaijani fighter is known for his powerful knockout punches. Therefore, a single accurate strike can completely change the course of the fight, despite his underdog status.

It is worth recalling that Tofiq Musayev had his first fight in the UFC last June at a tournament held in Baku and lost in the first round to Mytkibek Orolbay from Kyrgyzstan. Ignacio Bahamondes also had his last fight in the UFC in Baku and lost to another Azerbaijani fighter, Rafael Fiziev, by unanimous decision.